Agro-Urban Coupling Efficiency in Gandhinagar District, Gujarat: Agricultural Retention, Settlement Absorption and Transition Exposure

Abstract

Planned capital districts are normally characterized using the growth rate of the administrative city, but the persistence of their land system can be determined based on the reaction of surrounding villages, industrial fringes, cultivated lands, scrublands and water channels. Gandhinagar district of Gujarat State is studied using the Agro-Urban Coupling Efficiency Audit framework to test if low urban growth comes with efficient agricultural retention. Land cover accounting uses nine classes of data in 1995, 2003, 2010, 2016 and 2025 with accuracy of classification of data for 2016, 2016-2025 transition probabilities and driver association coefficients. Built up urban, built up rural and other built up land categories are considered together in the settlement absorption category and compared to agriculture, bare land and semi natural water. Agricultural land area decreases from 1825.36 km² in 1995 to 1730.49 km² in 2016 and to 1676.70 km² in 2025. The constructed land increases from 120.13 km² to 218.99 km² between 1995-2016 and grows to 255.68 km² in 2025. The cost of agriculture retention increases drastically because 0.96 km² of agricultural land change to every 1 square kilometre of constructed land gain between 1995-2016 and 1.47 km² during 2016-2025. The transitions occur mainly in agriculture and scrublands with 53.99 km² and 20.71 km² expected to leave their 2016 class designation. Driver analysis reveals that proximity to urban centre is first and elevation, river/canal distance and slope still highly correlated. Gandhinagar low urban growth implies that the district is undergoing transformation at an earlier stage and agricultural retention needs intervention.